What you think it may take to become successful may be an illusion altogether. We live in a highly random and changing world. And when the rules are constantly in flux, you may be betting the farm on a static snapshot in your mind that moves rather quickly.
If you wanted to get into the smartphone business, could you predict what would be successful and allow you to get 20% market share?
If you wanted to target service professionals, can you predict with precision how they are going to react to your offer versus your competitors?
What about daily deals like Groupon? Want to get in that market now? It’s pretty fatigued and on the downside. What once was hot is now fading.
You can start with a belief of what may happen, but what is true today may not be true next week.